Dec. 21, 2005
Copyright � Las Vegas Review-Journal

HOUSING MARKET: Bubble not on LV horizon

Home prices continue on record pace

By JENNIFER ROBISON
REVIEW-JOURNAL

Despite numerous predictions of bubbles and woe, the Las Vegas housing market is poised to pull off yet another record year.

New numbers from real estate research firm SalesTraq show 85,074 closings on new and existing homes in the Las Vegas Valley from January to November -- a tally that already surpasses the 84,595 units sold in all of 2004.

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Local builders closed on 34,631 units through November, a 17.7 percent improvement on the 29,187 homes they sold in 2004. The median price those homes are commanding rose to $303,903, up 5.4 percent from $288,447 in November 2004.

The valley's homeowners sold 50,443 existing houses through November, down 2.3 percent from 2004's total, though the median price among resales is up 12.9 percent year over year, from $247,945 in November 2004 to $280,000 last month. The average number of days a resale home spends on the market is also up slightly, from 41 days in November 2004 to 45 days last month. The number of sellers getting their full asking price is the same year over year, at 98 percent.

Larry Murphy, president of SalesTraq, said the local market has stabilized following its burst of appreciation in 2004, when housing prices rose more than 50 percent.

"Demand (for homes) has been relatively constant, though we do have a lot more inventory than we had on average last year," Murphy said. "With that inventory, prices have reached a plateau."

Though median prices are up year over year, condominium conversions have helped moderate cost increases in recent months, Murphy said.

Developers sold 849 condo conversions in November, nearly a quarter of the 3,824 new units sold marketwide. Those condo conversions carry a median price of $171,940, and that has helped keep new homes at a median of about $300,000 for the past three months. Murphy also credits condo conversions with reining in resale prices: The first conversions that came on the market in 2004 are starting to hit the existing-home market, where their lower prices may have helped pare the resale median from $284,000 to $280,000 since September, he said.

Murphy said he doesn't expect the valley to remain on its present plateau for long. He noted that a similar leveling-off of price increases occurred in 2004, when the resale median parked at about $250,000 from July to December.

"It took a while to digest the lump in the snake, after we gorged ourselves in the first half of 2004," Murphy said. "It took almost six months to absorb that in the second half of the year, but once we did, sales came back strong this year."

Murphy said he sees the same stabilizing phenomenon occurring now. The result: more price jumps in 2006.

"Barring any catastrophic events, I would say the resale median will be over $300,000 a year from now," Murphy said.

Local Realtors agreed with Murphy's assessment of the market's high plateau.

Bill Berning, broker of the Bill Berning Team at Prudential Americana Group, Realtors, said his sales agents are fielding a steady stream of phone calls from out-of-state buyers looking to move to Las Vegas, as well as local homeowners seeking to trade up equity to a bigger home or downsize to a more manageable property.

"All of my sales associates are busy showing (properties), and all of the listings we have are getting activity," Berning said. "We are getting offers on our listings. It's been a very good, consistent year."

Berning said the only factor that could slow the market in 2006 would be noticeable increases in interest rates by the Federal Reserve -- increases he said he didn't see on the horizon.

"I do believe we'll see continued demand and appreciation that's not going to be as aggressive as we had in 2004," Berning said. "We're still going to see good interest in our market."

Bette Leal, broker-owner of Century 21 Consolidated, said ongoing in-migration should continue to bolster the valley's real estate market.

"As long as 5,000 people move here every month, we're going to have a healthy market," Leal said. "It's all about supply and demand."

New home median price
2004 2005 Percentage
difference
$207,465 $290.551 40.0
212,897 283.695 33.3
228,634 286,000 25.1
235,450 286,490 21.7
239,145 293,570 22.8
244,263 292,482 19.7
241,990 292,250 20.8
262,447 292,573 11.5
281,082 301,050 7.1
279,488 297,289 6.4
288,447 393,903 5.4

Existing home median price
2004 2005 Percentage
difference
$180,000 $250,750 39.3
190,000 260,000 36.8
203,000 263,750 29.9
216,000 268,050 24.1
230,000 270,000 17.4
242,000 273,000 12.8
249,900 280,000 12.0
249,950 280,000 12.0
249,000 284,900 14.4
249,900 282,000 12.8
247,945 280,000 12.9

During the past eleven years, Summerlin has been the fastest growing Master Planned Community in the country. Located along the western rim of the Las Vegas valley, this community offers a unique lifestyle to its residents. Surrounded by the Red Rock Canyon National Conservation Area, Summerlin consists of several villages of residential properties, schools cultural centers, shopping, parks, trails, professional and medical facilities and golf courses. More than one-third of Summerlin's acreage is designated as open space, which includes parks, trails, golf courses and nature trails. Ours in Summerlin is something good for many people!

"The enormous Summerlin community is the most celebrated development in the northwest region of Las Vegas. In 1999, Summerlin let the country in new home sales among mater-planned communities with 2,281 homes sold, a 17 percent increase over the previous year. Within this community, there are 170 models to choose from, priced between $100,000 and $1 million. Other communities in the region include Queensridge, a 1,100-acre, master-planned community with a residential complement of 850 acres; the Lakes, which offers residents lakeside homes with boating and fishing; and Los Prados, an active adult community. The near northwest is home to one of Las Vegas' oldest neighborhoods; know locally as the Scotch 80s," described in the post.*2

"Bordered by Rancho Road, I-15, Oakey Boulevard, and Charleston Ave, this community of large, ranch-style residences was once home to BB King, Shecky Greene, and Diana Ross. The Valleyˇs largest assemblage of golf courses in the northwest, including the Badlands, Painted Desert, Los Prados, and Angel Park. Shopping at Meadows Mall and the Sahara Pavilion oasis nearby, and several neighborhood casinos, such as Santa Fe Station, Fiesta, and the Texas Station, offer fine dining and gaming, making it more convenient for residents who would prefer not to drive to the Strip. Apartments are plentiful, especially in the area of Sahara Road near Arville Street." *3

South Shores is one of the most important community in Summerlin. Dr. Tony Lei has been elected to the Board of the South Shores Community Association since 1993. The follwoing is a sample of his literature for the election in 2003:*4

"I wish to serve as a delegate because": I (Dr. Tony Lei) will offer my endeavor, knowledge, and ability to carry out the duties for the rights and benefits of the homeowners and residents here in our community. I'll work to motivate both the good production and human relations on the work performance of our Association and the Management Company which we, the homeowners, are paying service fees to support.

"Qualifications I feel will benefit the community": Delegates who are good in managemt knowledge and experience will do better with the Home Association Company to promote the work performance for the rights and benefits of our homeowners. Many years as an Associate Professor and Fellow of Management of the Graduate School of Business Administration of National Chung Hsing University and Pepperdine University, I may use my knowledge to serve our community. Many institutions such as Nevadan U. S. Representative of the Congress, District Attorney Office of Clark County, Constable's Office of Las Vegas Township, among others invited me as the Senior Advisor. I may use my experience to work for our homeowners and residents. I received my M.B.A. and Ed.D. in Institutional Management from Pepperdine University, Malibu, California, but my knowledge and experience will be also important for me to service our community together with my sincere and humble personal traits.

"Other information I wish to share": "Dr. Tony Lei has worked for our community in Southern Nevada more than ten years based on his belief that 'By the act of love itself, we are enriched. Love in action is service above self. Make service a part of our character and experience the abundant reward that comes from serving others. Let our heroes be the great servants who have given all for the betterment of others' lives. Let our candle fuel a fire that will fan out an ever-increasing circles. With these circles together we can close our eyes and evision a community that is safe, peaceful, and healthy.' We need such a people like him to work for our community," said a District Judge of our Family Court. I love the atmosphere here, I love the environment here, and especially I love the people here in our community. We should expect both of our Association and Management Company put effort to help our community be of our homeowners, by our homeowners , and for our homeowners. It's a good thing by working for you at the same time working for our families also because both of us are homeowners.*5

Without any opponent, Dr. Tony Lei won the election!*6

Dr. Tony Lei has served as a delegate and Director for South Shores Community Association since 1993.

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References

*1. PAI of WBTI isthe initials of Public Administration Institution of Washington Business and Technology Institute (WBTI).
*2. Google. 'Summerlin, Nevada,' "WWW.Google.com," (March 23, 2004), Mountain View, California: Google.com.
*3. Ibid.
*4. Terra West Property Management. "Election of Delegate Members," South Shores Community Association, (December, 2003), p.1.
*5. Terra West Property Management. "Delegate Candidate Statement, South Shores Homeowners Association," (December, 2003), pp. 2-3. This information has brought to you also by Las Vegas Review-Journal and lasvegas.com through the Section of "PPAA16" at http://communitylink.reviewjournal.com/lvrj/wbti.
*6. Terra West Property Management. 'Announcement of the Winners of Delegate Election,' "Minutes of the Board of Directors Meeting, South Shores Community Association," (February, 2003), Las Vegas, Nevada: South Shores Homeowners Association.

I. Call to Order
The Executive Members of the Intercity Business Council of Nevada (IBCN) held the Executive Meeting at 3:00 p.m., Saturday, August 13, 2005.

Executive Members Present:
Valerie Weber, Nevada Assemblywoman
Dr. Tony Lei, Founder
Charlyne Chen, Acting Chairperson
Michael Huang, Attorney at Law, Law Huang International Ltd.
Li Yan, Vice President of American Taiyu International, LLC.
Yin Yan, Vice President of American Taiyu International, LLC.
Judy Lei, Advisor of Judge Besty Kolkoski
Lily Yin
Anna
George Jaw (Too late to catch it up. Leave of absence requested.)

II. Approval of Minutes
Lt. Governor of Nevada Lorraine Hunt has been invited as our Honorary Chairperson of IBCN.
Missions of IBCN: In order to build an association among important cities nationally and internationally for: (1) Mutual cooperation and development of business, trade, and tourism; (2) Social and public relations among business and professionals; and (3) Event and dinner parties for our community in an atmosphere of friendly and mutual cooperation.
Directors at the present time: Mr. Han Zheng, City Mayor of Shanghai; Mr. Jim Gibson, Mayor of Henderson, Nevada; Mr. Michael L. Montandon, Mayor of North Las Vegas; Mr. Feng Wei Lai, County Governor of Penghu, Taiwan; CEO of United Commercial Bank; among others.

III. Message from the Acting Chairperson
Acting Chairperson of IBCN Charlyne Chen was the Chairman of this Meeting. She reported the reasons to establish this Council. She also stated the need and mission of IBCN. She invited Dr. Tony Lei to have an action.
Dr. Lei motioned Ms. Valerie Weber as the one and only one Advisor of IBCN at the present time. The motion was seconded by Mrs. Judy Lei and unanimously voted.

IV. Yin Yan's Speech
Miss Yin Yan said that she was very glad to participate this Council. She was ready to put her effort, talent, and financial resource to it for its steady development.

V. Recommendation
Dr. Lei recommended Yin Yan as our Vice Chairperson. Ms. Valerie Weber seconded it and the motion was carried.

VI. Title
Mr. Michael Huang suggested to modify the title of the Council as "International City Business Council".

VII. The Vice Chairman
Dr. Lei recommended Mr. Michael Huang as the Vice Chairman and it was unanimously voted. Mr. Huang suggested to have the CEO of Xiang Fan, Hubei, China, Mr. Tommy Hu, as a Director of our Council. It was agreed.

VIII. Unfinished Business
Mr. Huang asked Dr. Lei to confirm the title through Google.com. [After the meeting, Dr. Lei had it as "International Cities Business Council". Miss Chen and Mr. Huang were informed by him through the e-mail immedeately.]

IX. New Business
A Dinner Party will be held at the time when the Delegation from Penghu to be here in Las Vegas in September this year.
Mr. Huang agreed with that IBCN and WBTI will be invited as the co-sponsors of the event (BAR-B-Q) by the Las Vegas Chinese Association and Chinese Benevolent Association of Las Vegas. The event will be held by them in Las Vegas for the Mid-Autumn festival this year in September.
A plan for The International Chinese Writers Forum is in progressing. Mr. Li Yan has been appointed as the Acting President of the Forum.
Acting Chairperson Charlyne Chen is interested in developing and recruiting cooperate members.
X. Executive Secretary
Miss Chen recommended Mrs. Judy Lei as our Executive Secretary of the Council. It was unanimously passed.

XI. Adjuornment
A motion to adjourn at 5:30 p.m. passed unanimously.

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Approved by Executive Secretary

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Date

*****The name of "Intercity Business Council of Nevada (IBCN)" was changed to "International Cities Business Council (ICBC)" on August 15, 2005.